Two separate articles in the Tribune and Sun-Times today about the cooling housing market, both with the same gist: the market peaked last year, sales will decline across the board this year, and if you’re mortgaged up to your eyeballs, you’re in trouble.
For the most part, I agree with these assessments. The housing market is slowing down, and any bubble that existed is deflating. We’re not like the National Association of Realtors economist David Lareah, who repeats his stock quotes about how the market is merely “stabilizing” every time you pull the string on his back. The market is cyclical, and we had a good run the last five years. Now it’s time for some sanity.
Debbie and I had an interesting discussion with our pediatrician today about the housing market. He said, “When the nurses are talking about their real estate investments, that’s when I know it’s time to get out.” That’s not meant as a slap to the fiscal responsibility of nurses. What he meant was that when everybody and their brother thinks they can flip a condo with $1,000 down for a 50 percent profit after two months, well, something has to give. Home values can’t continue to increase at the same rate they did the last few years forever. But people will always need a place to live, and fortunately for them, it may be a little more affordable again.
In our business, we are seeing longer market times for properties. Buyers don’t have the same sense of urgency because there is a larger inventory out there. They don’t have to snap up the first one-bedroom with a view of the backside of a dumpster that they find. They can afford to look around for the right place. On the flip-side, sellers are learning to be more realistic about the resale value on their homes. It’s probably unreasonable now to expect 15-20 percent returns each year like people were getting in the last few years. But that doesn’t mean they’ll have to sit on their place forever–if it’s becoming a buyer’s market, that means people will be on the lookout for deals. And as long as interest rates stay low, buyers will stay in the hunt, albeit more patiently.